When it comes to the box office, it’s usually pretty easy to tell if a movie is doing well or poorly after its first weekend. You have to look at the budget that went into the movie, the marketing, and how it relates to other films of its ilk. Not every film will make a billion dollars, but you can easily point out the ones that arguably “should make it easily” and then gauge things on that metric. For Avatar: The Way Of Water, the expectation is that the film must make at least a billion dollars, if not double, to live up to the legacy the first film left.

The good news is that while we can’t say it’ll make as much as the first movie, it’ll definitely beat the first film’s opening box office! According to projections, Avatar: The Way Of Water is set to make around $525 million worldwide in its first weekend at the box office. That puts it on the level of many major superhero movies, such as the recent ones from the Marvel Cinematic Movies, which can easily gross that amount in their first weekend.

When the first film came out in 2009, it had a domestic opening of about $77 million. That was very impressive back then, as most films wouldn’t even get close to that in their first weekend. In contrast, the sequel will earn about $175 million domestically. That is a substantial jump and one that will help it reach lofty heights at the box office.

The real question is about the results in the subsequent weekends. When the original movie came out, which was also in December, it had no competition at the box office, and it was able to maintain an incredibly consistent pace. It barely had a drop from its first to the second weekend back in 2009. We mean that literally. The second weekend domestically was $75 million, a decline of barely 2%!

That kind of drop would be a real miracle here in 2022, as major releases like this typically get a 50-70% drop after its first weekend.

That being said, there isn’t any competition for Avatar: The Way Of Water the rest of the year. There are no other major releases in 2022, and we’re unsure of what 2023 movie could topple it off the top of our heads. On the other hand, that’s good because, between its big opening weekend and the upcoming holidays, its revenue could grow dramatically over time.

Source: ComicBook.com